College Football Week 4 Picks

Well, I’m continuing my hot streak into week 4 of the college football season. I went 13-6 last week and moved to an astounding +15 at 36-21 for the season. This can’t possibly keep up. As good as I have been at picking games overall, I’ve been just as bad at picking locks. I went 1-2 last week after Georgia squeaked out a victory against Missouri, and Vandy completely crapped the bed against Georgia Tech. We’re now 3-5 in our lock picks and that sucks. The week 4 slate looks to be a pretty good one with four games that feature top 25 teams. Let’s get to it.

#5 Clemson at Georgia Tech (+9.5): Clemson has underwhelmed a little this season with subpar performances against Auburn and Troy. Georgia Tech is 3-0 having not beaten anyone yet. Georgia Tech’s triple option always seems to give teams trouble, and I think they do it again here in front of a crazy Thursday night crowd. Clemson wins in a close one, but give me the home dog to cover.

USC at #24 Utah (-3): USC is a complete train wreck with Clay Helton at the helm. Utah hasn’t looked all that great either against three teams not as good as them. USC is making a quarterback change to hopefully ignite a spark. I don’t think it will help as I’m rolling with the home team.

#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss (-7): Georgia may be one of the most overrated teams, as they have fallen all the way down to 52 in the Sagarin PREDICTOR while Ole Miss is still way up at 11. Georgia had two really close wins against bad opponents, while Ole Miss had two really close losses against good opponents. I ripped Hugh Freeze last week for being too conservative, but I think they actually get it done this week and don’t blow another big second half lead.

#13 Florida State (-6) at USF: I have no idea what to make of FSU after last week’s game against Louisville. Are they really that bad? I don’t think so. Lamar Jackson and Louisville are really that good. We don’t know much about USF as they have blown out 3 bad opponents. Sagarin has them ranked higher than I thought at 34. I’ll go with FSU to bounce back.

Kent State at #1 Alabama (-43.5): Won’t spend too much time on this one. Kent State is one of the worst teams in all of FBS. They lost to North Carolina A&T in four overtimes. I’ll take Bama to cover.

#11 Wisconsin (+5.5) at #8 Michigan State: I’ve been calling Wisconsin overrated the past couple of weeks, but I actually like them in this matchup. This is going to be a low scoring game, and I love picking the team getting points in even matchups. I think Michigan State will win, but I’m playing the odds and taking the Badgers to bounce back after a dreadful performance last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wisconsin actually won.

#19 Florida (+6.5) at #14 Tennessee: Oh yes, the game of the year for Tennessee fans. Knoxville may burn to the ground if they lose this one. The Gators lost starting QB Luke Del Rio to a knee injury and now turn to Purdue graduate transfer Austin “motherf***in” Appleby as Clay Travis put it. I’m still confident in Florida because of Appleby’s experience. If they had to go with one of the true freshman, then they would be in trouble. The defense will dominate Tennessee’s offensive line and shut down the running attack and no passing game. Gators win for the 12th straight year, 17-10.

Penn State at #4 Michigan (-19): Michigan hasn’t played anyone yet this season, but they sure do look damn good. Jabrill Peppers is having a monster season so far on both defense and returning kicks on special teams. Penn State is coming off a home win against Temple by 7. Michigan wins easily.

#18 LSU at Auburn (+3.5): Auburn is coming into this game having lost its last 6 SEC home games. Think about that. That’s almost impossible. I wonder how many times Vandy and Kentucky have lost 6 straight SEC games at home. The last SEC team Auburn beat at home was South Carolina in 2014. It has to end sometime, and I think it’s this week. Les Miles will be in some serious trouble after this one.

#6 Houston (-34.5) at Texas State: It’s normally really hard to pick a road team by this many points, no matter how good they are or how bad the home team is. Tom Herman is one of the hottest coaches right now, and I think he’ll have Houston ready to play. I’ve been surprised at how good Houston has been on defense. Not too confident in this one, but I think they’ll cover.

Oklahoma State (+7.5) at #16 Baylor: Baylor went 0-2 against the spread in their first two FBS games, and I picked them both times. I’m afraid going against them here will bite me in the ass. Oklahoma State is a good team with a good QB in Mason Rudolph. They should be 3-0 after losing because of a rule that nobody knew to a decent Central Michigan team. I think OK St keeps it close but Baylor wins.

#20 Nebraska (-7.5) at Northwestern: Nebraska is coming off a nice win against Oregon, while Northwestern is coming off it’s first win against Duke. Not real sure what to make of Northwestern after they overachieved last year going 10-2 and then getting blown out by Tennessee in the Outback Bowl. Two weeks ago they lost 9-7 to Illinois State. Even Will Muschamp was disgusted. This will be a low scoring game, but I’ll take Nebraska as Northwestern just won’t be able to keep up on offense.

#3 Louisville (-26.5) at Marshall: I mean is there any way we can pick against Louisville right now? I’m not a big transitive property guy when it comes to sports, but Marshall gave up 65 to Akron last week, who scored 10 against Wisconsin the week before. Louisville could probably score 100 in this game if they wanted to. Lock this one up and don’t think twice about it.

#7 Stanford (-3) at UCLA: Besides the UF game, this may be the one I’m anticipating the most. I’ve gone back and forth on this one a couple of times. This all comes down to whether UCLA can contain Christian McCaffrey because you can’t stop him. He ran all over UCLA last year with 243 rushing yards and 369 all purpose yards. UCLA has a lot of experience in their front 7 even with losing Myles Jack, but I don’t think it will be enough. Stanford wins by a touchdown.

#17 Arkansas (+6) vs. #10 Texas A&M: This is another tough one for me. Arkansas was awful in their opener and then have been really good the last two weeks. A&M has been really good in their two meaningful games. I’m going to play the odds here and just bet that this is a close game between two pretty even teams in what Vegas projects to be fairly low scoring on a neutral field.

#9 Washington (-11) at Arizona: Here’s why I’m taking Washington: Chris Peterson is coaching their team and Rich Rodriguez isn’t. Arizona is not very good having lost to BYU at home and only beating Grambling by only 10. Washington has done what they were supposed to and blown out their inferior competition. Huskies win big.

Over Pick of the Week – Kent State at #1 Alabama (50): I have to refrain at least one week from using the term “lock” since they have been anything but locks. One thing I’m trying to start looking for in the over pick is a low line, and I think I found a good one here. Alabama is averaging 46 points a game against some pretty good competition. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to put up a 50 burger on Kent State. If they don’t, they’ll be awfully close and hopefully Kent can get a garbage touchdown to go over.

Under Pick of the Week – #19 Florida at #14 Tennessee (43.5): This one is too easy. Florida is starting their backup quarterback, and Tennessee is starting one who can’t throw. And both teams have great defenses. I know this is probably everybody’s lock pick, but sometimes you just gotta go with the chalk and pocket the cash.