College Football Week 5 Picks

I don’t know what else to say. I don’t want to sound like a douche, but I think I have to say it. Maybe I’m pretty good at making college football gambling picks. I keep waiting for a massive regression week to come and it hasn’t yet. I went 11-7 last week and moved to +19 at 47-28 for the season. Now my O/U picks continue to suck, as I went 0-2 last week and now sit at 3-5 for the season. I’ll keep doing those and hopefully turn it around, but I simply can’t call those locks anymore.

Week 5 looks to be a good week with four match-ups featuring top 25 ranked teams, three of which are between two top 10 ranked teams. But all the other games featuring top 25 teams are mostly against really bad competition. Here’s why I like college football more than NFL: We’ll all be able to watch all three of the top 10 match-ups and not have to pay up for a TV package. You can’t watch the best NFL games for each time slot on Sunday because of the regional broadcasts.

Anyway, here are my picks for week 5. I want to stress that I’m starting to use more of a statistics and analytical approach to predicting the games. We’re now 4 weeks into the season, so we have a decent sample of the teams’ performances to predict future outcomes. I cite my favorite computer college football rating system, Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, to justify my picks. You can read a little bit about Jeff here. My pick is the line in parentheses.

Connecticut at #6 Houston (-29): With the Les Miles firing, Tom Herman is probably the leading candidate to take over in Baton Rouge. UConn is not good as they barely beat Maine at home and lost to Syracuse at home as well. Houston has proven they are for real even if people think Oklahoma is overrated. I think Oklahoma is still a very good team as Sagarin still has them #8 in his overall ratings. Houston with an easy win here.

#7 Stanford at #10 Washington (-3.5): Stanford is coming off one of the greatest gambling wins ever by returning a sack-fumble for a touchdown as time expired, and Washington is coming off an overtime win at Arizona that nobody on the east coast saw. I think it’s really tough to win two straight road games against quality opponents. I think Stanford is the better team, and I feel like a lot of people will be picking them, but I’ll go a little contrarian and take the Huskies to win by 4 at home.

#14 Miami (-7) at Georgia Tech: I said before that I love Miami this year. I felt like Mark Richt was an excellent hire, and they have an outstanding QB in Brad Kaaya. Georgia Tech looked like absolute crap against Clemson. Tech might keep it close in the first half, but I think Mark Richt will have them focused and they’ll win fairly easily with a big home game next week against FSU.

Rutgers at #2 Ohio State (-38.5): Rutgers is bad. Here are some teams ranked ahead of Rutgers according to Sagarin’s ratings: Western Illinois, Youngstown State, and Chattanooga. No more analysis needed. Buckeyes win by 40+.

#13 Baylor (-16.5) at Iowa State: Baylor is coming off a nice win at home against Oklahoma State. Iowa State is 1-3 with a loss to Northern Iowa and a blowout loss to in-state rival Iowa at home. Even on the road, look for Baylor to completely dominate in this one.

#23 Florida (-10) at Vanderbilt: If the Gators can’t beat Vandy by at least 10 points on the road, there’s some serious problems. Vandy is so bad and were lucky to beat Western Kentucky last week. I’m still a believer in McElwain and I think he’ll have them ready. Gators bounce back and win by three touchdowns.

#22 Texas at Oklahoma State (-2.5): The line is too low in this one. Texas is a little overrated as Sagarin still has them at about 39 overall, while Oklahoma State is underrated at 30 with a couple tough luck losses. Texas is coming off a bye week, but I don’t think it matters. Oklahoma State might be a little better and they are at home. Just need them to win by a field goal, and I think that’s an easy win.

#8 Wisconsin (+10.5) at #4 Michigan: Wisconsin is coming off a complete dominant performance over Michigan State, while this is Michigan’s first real test. I think this is too many points for a team like Wisconsin and their defense. Michigan will win but it will be a really close game.

Illinois (+21) at #15 Nebraska: Illinois is another bad team coming off a bye and a 34-10 loss at home to Western Michigan. Nebraska beat a good Oregon team a couple weeks ago, but I’m not sure they are as good as their #15 ranking. I think Illinois will barely cover in this one.

#11 Tennessee (-3.5) at # 25 Georgia: Georgia might be the most overrated team in the country as Sagarin has them at 53 in his overall rating. Tennessee is coming off one of the most impressive comebacks I’ve ever seen. Tennessee keeps it rolling and wins by a couple of touchdowns.

North Carolina (+11) at #12 Florida State: Florida State has some serious issues on defense, and I don’t think you can comfortably pick them to beat any good team by this many points right now. UNC is really capable of putting points on the board. I think Dalvin Cook will run wild, but Noles only win by a touchdown.

#9 Texas A&M at South Carolina (+17.5): Oh man, I’m gonna do it. I’m going to pick Will Muschamp. They are at home and have a good defense, and I think it will be enough to cover the 17.5 points they are getting. I think A&M might be a legit contender in the SEC West, but I feel like they might be in for a bit of a letdown this week.

Oklahoma at #21 TCU (+3.5): Oklahoma is one of the most underrated teams because of two losses to top 10 teams. I’m going to hedge a little bit and pick Oklahoma to win this game by a field goal, thus I have TCU +3.5. It’s just so hard to lay more than a field goal on the road against another good team.

#18 Utah at Cal (-2): I have to admit I don’t know much about Pac 12 football. So I’m just going to flip a coin and go with the home team. I don’t think Utah is as good as their ranking. They’ve been pretty lucky this year so far, beating BYU by 1 and USC by 4. They lose a close one here. I’ll have more on this one later.

Kentucky at #1 Alabama (-35): Maybe the worst Power 5 conference team versus the best. Don’t think twice about this one.

Memphis (+14.5) at #16 Ole Miss: Memphis was able to pull off the upset last year versus Ole Miss. They’ve blown out their weak competition so far this year, and Ole Miss has lost two games to really good teams. Ole Miss avenges last year’s loss, but Memphis is a good team. I think the Tigers cover.

#19 San Diego State at South Alabama (+19): I honestly can’t name one player on SDSU without looking them up. Not sure what they’ve done to warrant a #19 ranking other than beat a Cal team that plays no defense. They’re #51 in Sagarin’s overall rating. South Alabama won’t pull off an upset like they did against Mississippi State, but they will keep it close.

#17 Michigan State (-7) at Indiana: Yes, MSU is coming off a total beatdown at home from Wisconsin, and they probably aren’t as good as their #17 ranking. But as my dad who’s from Indiana might say, “IU is still IU.” Mark Dantonio is too good of a coach to let the Spartans lose by less than a touchdown to Indiana.

#3 Louisville at #5 Clemson (+2): This may be one of the most anticipated games all season. This game opened at Louisville +2, so the money is coming in hard on Louisville. I think Clemson’s defense can contain Lamar Jackson enough to win. I’m going to go with the experienced QB in Deshaun Watson at home to pull it out.

Utah State (+20) at #24 Boise State: Here’s another one where I don’t know much about either team. Interesting that Boise State is also rated 24th by Sagarin, so they may be a legit top 25 team. Since I’m not confident either way, I’ll just go with the team getting almost three touchdowns. I have no confidence whatsoever in this one.

Over Pick of the Week – #18 Utah at Cal (67): Here have been the scores of Cal’s first four games this season: 51-31, 45-40, 50-43, and 51-41. Maybe Utah’s defense is the best they’ve seen, but this still feels like a really low total for a game involving a team like Cal.

Under Pick of the Week – #3 Louisville at #5 Clemson (67.5): I know Louisville is averaging like 60 points a game, but they have to come back down to earth sometime. It has to be this week against a good Clemson defense. This game could still be a fairly high scoring game and still not hit the over. I have Clemson winning something like 34-31.

Honorable Mention – Indiana University of Pennsylvania over Seton Hill: Had a request in the comments last week from my Great Uncle Tom. The Crimson Hawks open their home schedule this week coming off a 3-0 start on the road averaging 61 points per game. They are the Louisville of Division II football and are ranked #8 according to NCAA.com. Take IUP to win with ease this week.