Five weeks down, and five weeks in the green to start the season. Not as good of a week by going 12-10, but it’s positive so we’re keeping the streak going. Would’ve gone 13-9 if college football allowed extra points to be kicked on scores that occur on the final play of the game like the NFL does. I’m now up to +21 at 59-38 for the season, but a dismal 3-7 in O/U picks.
Week 6 has a few good matchups, but six of the AP top 25 teams are on byes, so we don’t have as many games this week to pick. Also, Florida and LSU is now postponed because of Hurricane Matthew. If the postponement of this game impacts the race for the SEC championship, they have to find a way to play it. It would be totally unfair for another team to get left out because of one of these two teams playing one less game.
Anyway, let’s get to my week 6 picks. As a reminder, I base my picks off of odds and statistical probabilities based on previous results to predict future outcomes rather than breaking down team strengths and individual matchups. I’m not much of a football scheme and formation type of guy. Give me statistics, probabilities, and numbers to help me predict the games. My picks are the lines in parentheses.
#3 Clemson (-17) at Boston College: Boston College’s head coach is Steve Addazio. As a Gator fan, I know what to do in this one. The Eagles lost to Virginia Tech 49-0 three weeks ago. It’s pretty likely we’ll see a similar result in this one. Clemson is coming off an emotional win over Louisville, and I expect them to put the “Clemsoning” narrative to bed.
#19 Boise State at New Mexico (+17): Boise State underwhelmed a little last week against Utah State. New Mexico is not very good having lost to Rutgers and awful New Mexico State already. Can’t tell you much about either team so I’ll just close my eyes and ride with the home underdog getting two touchdowns and a field goal.
Texas (+10) vs #20 Oklahoma: I wasn’t sold on Texas even after the home win against Notre Dame. But now they are getting 10 points on a neutral field in a rivalry game, and we saw what happened last year. Oklahoma is really underrated and I wouldn’t be shocked if they totally blew Texas out. If that happens, Charlie Strong may be fired next week. Just going to play the odds and hope Texas can keep it reasonable.
#6 Houston at Navy (+17): Greg Ward and Houston have been very impressive to start the year. Navy always seems to have an underrated, well coached team. They also run the triple option, which could give Houston problems. Even with Keenan Reynolds gone, I like Navy and the points here at home.
Indiana (+29) at #2 Ohio State: Indiana may actually not as bad of a team as we think. They beat an overrated Michigan State team last week thanks to a leaping penalty on a missed field goal that allowed them to re-kick. Ohio State has been really impressive so far, and I feel a little bit of a letdown coming with a big game next week at Wisconsin. I’ll take the Hoosiers to keep it within the spread.
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M (-7): Tennessee has been very lucky so far this year, but they are still a very good team. I love what I’ve seen from Texas A&M this year especially on defense. I like them to win big at home in this one after their somewhat disappointing game and Tennessee’s Hail Mary last week.
#25 Virginia Tech at #17 North Carolina (-2.5): I know FSU’s defense was horrendous, by I loved what I saw from the Tar Heels and QB Mitch Trubisky. Virginia Tech has blown out all of their bad opponents and lost to Tennessee thanks to some awful fumble luck. I think UNC is just a little bit better, and I just need them to win by a field goal at home.
#21 Colorado at USC (-4.5): Colorado is in the top 25 for the first time since the 2005 season. I’ve talked about how poorly coached I think USC is, but they have had a brutal schedule with three road games against top 25 teams. The computer polls still like them despite the poor record, so I’ll pick them to beat a quality team at home by a touchdown.
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas (+14): Arkansas might be a little overrated, but I really don’t get this line at all. I mean, everybody and their brother has to be taking Arkansas in this one. Alabama is great, but 14 points on the road at night with a true Freshman QB against a very good QB, great? I’d be shocked, I tell you. Shocked. If Vegas is right, you just have to tip your cap to them. This is my lock of the week.
#4 Michigan (-27.5) at Rutgers: I can’t believe this is the third game this season I’ve had to pick a game involving Rutgers. I don’t care that they’re at home in this one. It’s going to be similar to the other results. Michigan wins by at least 40.
#5 Washington at Oregon (+9): Oregon has been absolutely dreadful on defense so far this year, and they are coming off a three game losing skid. Washington is coming off a total beatdown of a very good Stanford team. I actually love the home team and the points in this one and actually wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off the upset.
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami (-3): I wonder when the last time FSU was unranked. I think it’s going to happen after this one. Brad Kaaya should be able to pick apart the FSU defense, and I doubt Jimbo will make any strategic changes in coaching for this one. He’ll likely play conservatively again in the first half, despite knowing he’s going to have to score a lot to win this one. I’ll take the Hurricanes to win by about 10.
Arizona (+10) at #24 Utah: When in doubt, take the team getting points especially if the team laying points appears to be overrated. Utah is 41st in the Sagarin PREDICTOR and Arizona is 58. So these two teams aren’t too far apart in terms of predicting future outcomes. Remember Arizona took Washington to overtime just a couple of weeks ago.
Washington State at #15 Stanford (-7): Despite the awful loss to Washington, Stanford is still a very good team. I know Mike Leach likes to throw it around and score points, but I think the Stanford defense will bounce back and slow them down. Going out on a limb and saying McCaffrey won’t have a bad game again and will lead the Cardinal to a big win.
Over Pick of the Week – Virginia Tech at UNC (58): Sigh. The O/U picks have just been atrocious as I haven’t gone 2-0 in a week yet. It’s going to change this week. This one may have weather implications, but both of these teams are averaging over 40 points a game. Still think this is a good bet.
Under Pick of the Week – Auburn at Mississippi State (54.5): Well, I was going to have the Florida-LSU game here, but we got a postponement and a possible cancellation. This is the highest under consensus pick according to oddsshark.com. In 3 games versus Power 5 opponents, Auburn is averaging just over 15 points per game. In it’s two SEC games, Mississippi State averaged 23.5 points per game. Small samples, I know, but both teams have strong defenses and both struggle passing the ball. Expect a low scoring one here.
Tony and Bela 