Finally took a big L last week going 6-9 (nice). But I was way overdue for a bad week, and I’m still at +18 for the season at 65-47. I still can’t get a perfect 2-0 in the O/U picks as I went 1-1 again, moving to 4-8 for the season. Looking for a nice bounce back week and my first 2-0 for O/U. I can’t believe it’s week 7 already and some teams will be surpassing the midway point of their regular season. Not a very good slate of games this week, but there are two top 10 matchups I’m really looking forward to. Let’s get to it.
Duke at #7 Louisville (-34.5): Louisville is coming off a bye week after a fantastic game against Clemson, despite the loss. In Duke’s 4 games against FBS opponents not named Notre Dame, they are averaging 15 points a game. I just don’t see Duke being able to score enough to keep up and cover. Take the Cards big.
Kansas State at #19 Oklahoma (-14): I still feel Oklahoma is underrated even with their porous defense. This is a good matchup for Oklahoma as Kansas State has the 116th ranked passing offense in the country, which has been Oklahoma’s weakness on defense. I like the Sooners to hold them enough to cover.
NC State at #3 Clemson (-17.5): Clemson gets an extra day of rest coming off the win against BC last Friday night. NC State has good defensive stats, but that may be skewed because of a weak schedule and them coming off a 10-3 win over Notre Dame during Hurricane Matthew where the only touchdown came on a blocked punt. I’ll go with Deshaun Watson to have a big game at home and the Tigers to cover.
#20 West Virginia at Texas Tech (+1): First one to 50 might win this game. Seriously. The O/U on this game is 83. Both teams have top 20 offenses and defenses ranked in the bottom half of all FBS teams. Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes leads the nation in passing at 455 yards per game. I’ll go with him and the Red Raiders to get it done at home.
#24 Western Michigan (-12) at Akron: Western Michigan might actually be a legitimate top 25 team. They’ve already beaten Northwestern, Illinois, and Central Michigan all on the road. And the only close one was at Northwestern by one point. I think they could be the second best non-Power 5 conference team behind Houston. Akron’s defense is among the worst in the country. Give me the Broncos in an easy win.
Kansas at #11 Baylor (-35): Kansas nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets last week against TCU, but missed a field goal in the final seconds. They have now lost 14 straight Big 12 games. I like Baylor coming off a bye and Kansas returning back to being a dismal team once again.
#1 Alabama at #9 Tennessee (+12): Eventually Alabama has to have a close game. As good as they are, I refuse to believe they are going to win every game by double digits. Tennessee has a ton of injuries and they are coming off the 5 hour marathon against Texas A&M. I still think they will be able to keep this one close. Bama wins by a touchdown.
North Carolina (+7) at #16 Miami: Despite getting nearly shutout against Virginia Tech in the storm last weekend, I still love North Carolina’s passing attack. Miami’s defensive numbers are good, but they hadn’t played anyone until Florida State last weekend. Miami won’t lose two in a row at home and it will be a close one, but UNC covers.
#10 Nebraska (-3) at Indiana: This game opened at Indiana (+6) and has been bet all the way down to +3. I know Indiana beat, in my opinion, an overrated Michigan State team and covered against Ohio State, but only 3 points? I’m no fan of Nebraska, but I think this is way too low. Write this one in stone and lock this one up. Also heard a funny stat earlier today. Of the four FBS teams in Indiana (Indiana, Purdue, Ball State, and Notre Dame), Notre Dame has the worst record.
Wake Forest at #14 Florida State (-21.5): FSU’s defense finally showed up last week against Miami and they have a great matchup this week against Wake Forest whose offense ranks 110th. I like the Noles big in this one.
#17 Virginia Tech at Syracuse (+19.5): Interesting matchup here as VA Tech has a great defense and an average offense, and Syracuse has a great passing offense and a horrible defense. When the units are fairly similar on both sides of the ball, I would think taking the home team and the points is the right play. But maybe the Hokies will force some turnovers that give them short fields and allow them cover. I’ll go with the former.
#21 Utah at Oregon State (+9): So apparently Utah is down to its sixth string running backand fourth string center. This is also supposed to be a low scoring game with the O/U at 41. Oregon State is pretty bad and this is two teams I don’t know much about, so I’ll just take the home team and the points and move on.
Missouri at #18 Florida (-13.5): The Gators get starting QB Luke Del Rio back after a “bye” week where they “ducked” LSU. Missouri’s defense may be just what Florida needs to get going on offense. I think they do and win by 17 on homecoming. In McElwain I Still Trust.
#12 Ole Miss at #22 Arkansas (+7.5): This game features the two best passing quarterbacks in the SEC and there’s nobody else even close. Arkansas may not be as good as we had thought, but I still love Austin Allen. Combine that with the game at home and an Ole Miss defense that really struggles, I like the Razorbacks to cover here. I’ll still stick with Chad Kelly and Ole Miss to win, but give me Arkansas +7.5.
Tulsa at #13 Houston (-21): Have to wonder how Houston will respond the rest of the season after the disappointing loss to Navy. Tom Herman needs to continue to show that he’s an elite coach, and I think they’ll bounce back against a Tulsa team that struggles against the pass. I’ll take Houston to cover the 21 points.
#2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin (+10.5): I can’t believe Urban Meyer has yet to lose a true road game at Ohio State. That’s an unbelievable stat for a guy in his 4th season. I think he will remain undefeated after this one, but I’ll be damned if they cover against a defense like Wisconsin’s. I’ll take the Badgers.
Colorado State (+28.5) at #15 Boise State: I have no idea what to make of Boise State again as I have yet to watch a single minute of them play this year. Apparently they have a really good quarterback named Brett Rypien who has thrown 11 touchdowns to 3 interceptions so far. This just seems like too many points to lay, so I’ll take CSU with zero confidence.
Over Pick of the Week – Ole Miss at Arkansas (67): Two top passing offenses versus two average to below average defenses. I like my chances in the over with this one.
Under Pick of the Week – Ohio State at Wisconsin (44): This is an awful matchup for the Wisconsin offense as OSU is top 10 in overall, rushing, and pass defense. Ohio State’s strength on offense is running the football and Ohio State is 6th in the country in stopping the run. Under is the easy play here.
Tony and Bela 