Before I give my picks for the week, I want to give my updated rankings since I wasn’t able to do them earlier or do a recap of last week’s biggest games.

My first ranking is what I call my “resume” rankings where only wins and losses matter. This is how the Committee decides the Playoff, not by how good the teams actually are. I stop at 15 to include all teams that still have a chance at the College Football Playoff, in my opinion. Western Michigan and the two loss teams are extreme long shots, but I still think they have the smallest of chances. The top 4 teams are my playoff teams.

  1. Alabama (7-0): Another dominating win for Bama. Don’t have to think twice about this one.
  2. Ohio State (6-0): Fortunate to win at Wisconsin, but that’s what Urban Meyer does. Easy number 2 after Bama.
  3. Washington (6-0): Been as dominant as any team in the country. Should get in as a 1-loss Pac 12 champ.
  4. Clemson (7-0): Should’ve lost at home to NC State, but still think they win the ACC championship, which gets them into the playoff.
  5. Michigan (6-0): Have them losing to Ohio State, which is why they are out.
  6. Texas A&M (6-0): A couple OT wins might make them a little lucky, but they are atop the second tier of undefeateds.
  7. Baylor (6-0): Not a very difficult schedule so far, but have been impressive.
  8. Nebraska (6-0): No real impressive wins either. Have road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State back to back in a couple weeks.
  9. West Virginia (5-0): Held a very good Texas Tech offense to 17 points. Have Oklahoma and Baylor at home and could contend for the Big 12 title.
  10. Louisville (5-1): Easily the most impressive 1-loss team.
  11. Utah (6-1): A win against USC is starting to look more impressive. Tough couple games coming up at UCLA and Washington at home.
  12. Florida (5-1): Haven’t beaten anybody, but do have a “good” loss at Tennessee.
  13. Boise State (6-0): Unbeaten but not in a Power 5 conference. Washington State win is looking pretty good too.
  14. Western Michigan (7-0): Most dominant non-Power 5 team.
  15. Wisconsin/Oklahoma/Tennessee tie (4-2): Best two loss resume teams that can still realistically win their conference.

 

My second ranking is my team strength rankings in which wins and losses don’t matter. This is my ranking of the teams by how good I actually think they are. Think of it as who I think would win if the two teams being compared played on a neutral field. For instance, Houston beat Oklahoma on a neutral field in week one. But if they played on a neutral field x number of times, I think Oklahoma would win more than 50% of the time.

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. Louisville
  5. Washington
  6. Clemson
  7. Texas A&M
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Houston
  10. Wisconsin

 

Finally, here are my picks against the spread. Bounced back from my first losing week to go 11-8 last week and move back to +21 on the season at 76-55. O/U continues to be a disaster with an 0-2 week (Screw you Hugh Freeze playing not to lose) and I’m now 4-10 on the season. Have to keep going though as Clay Travis says, “Shooters shoot.” My picks are the lines in parentheses and offense and defense ranks are in yards per game.

BYU at #14 Boise State (-7): Six of BYU’s seven games have been decided by 7 points or less. I like Boise here though because of their strong passing attack versus a weak BYU pass defense ranked 100th.

#10 Wisconsin (-3.5) at Iowa: Wisconsin showed last week that they are for real. I was not a believer after the LSU win, but now I am. I have a hard time seeing Iowa being able to score at all in this one. I’ll take the Badgers.

NC State (+20) at #7 Louisville: NC State should’ve beaten Clemson last week, but #CollegeKickers. Their defense should be good enough to slow Lamar Jackson down enough to cover.

#22 North Carolina (-8) at Virginia: This is an awful matchup for Virginia as they have the 114th ranked pass defense in the country. That’s not going to be good enough to keep up with Mitch Trubisky and a high tempo, pass first North Carolina offense.

TCU (+5.5) at #12 West Virginia: Two very evenly matched teams with good offenses and below average defenses. That means take the points even if the team is on the road.

Purdue at #8 Nebraska (-24): Purdue has the 124th ranked rushing defense in the country, while Nebraska has the 27th ranked rushing offense. Should be field day for Tommy Armstrong Jr. and Nebraska.

Eastern Michigan at #20 Western Michigan (-23.5): Eastern Michigan was one of the worst teams in all of FBS last season and they have really overachieved so far this year at 5-2. Even though I haven’t watched them, I think Western Michigan might be for real.

#6 Texas A&M (+18.5) at #1 Alabama: This is a good matchup for A&M’s defense as they struggle defending the pass, which isn’t Alabama’s strength. I think this is Nick Saban’s best Alabama team ever, but I can’t see them beating A&M by more than 18 even at home.

Memphis at #24 Navy (+2.5): This is an interesting line. A top 25 home team is an underdog versus an unranked team. This is tough to pick as Memphis has a good rush defense, but you never know with this Navy triple option. I’ll take the home team and the points.

Illinois at #3 Michigan (-35.5): Wouldn’t be surprised if this reaches Rutgers territory for Michigan. Illinois won’t score in this one.

#19 Utah at UCLA (-7): A 6-1 team is a touchdown underdog versus a 3-4 team. UCLA has been really unlucky in close game this year, and Utah has a ton of injuries. I like Josh Rosen and the Bruins.

#17 Arkansas (+10) at #21 Auburn: Another interesting line from Vegas. Also interesting to note that Sagarin has Auburn ranked 11th ahead of teams like Wisconsin, FSU,  Houston, and Baylor. The only advantage I see is Auburn’s rushing attack against Arkansas’ rushing defense. But I think Austin Allen is good enough to keep this one close.

Oregon State at #5 Washington (-37): Another insanely high line for two in-conference opponents. This is as bad a matchup as it can get for Oregon State. Washington wins by at least 40.

#11 Houston (-21) at SMU: Greg Ward Jr. and Houston will rebound after two bad games and will have a field day against an SMU defense ranked 109th overall.

#16 Oklahoma at Texas Tech (+14): This is my lock of the week as Texas Tech will be able to match Oklahoma’s passing attack with their own. Oklahoma’s passing defense has been just as weak as Tech’s, and I like Tech to come back at home after a poor performance last week against West Virginia.

#2 Ohio State (-19.5) at Penn State: Terrible matchup for Penn State with their sieve of a rushing defense. Love the Buckeyes to get back to blowing out opponents again.

#23 Ole Miss at #25 LSU (-6): Hugh Freeze makes me angry. He plays scared when making in-game coaching decisions. Give me LSU and Coach O for no other reason.

Over Pick of the Week: TCU at West Virginia (65.5): Two high ranked offenses versus two low ranked defenses as I mentioned above. And a much lower line than Oklahoma-Texas Tech. Love this one.

Under Pick of the Week: Wisconsin at Iowa (42.5): This is by far the lowest total of the top 25 games this week. I think the public will be all over this one too, which scares me. I’m going to stick with it though as I have a hard time seeing either team getting to 20 points.

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