Last week was what I had been waiting for all season. I knew it was bound to happen after my crazy, hot start. I went 6-13 overall and fell to 82-68 for the season, which is still a respectable +14. Still looking for my first 2-0 week in the O/U picks as I again went 1-1 for a total of 5-11 on the season. I am the Gus Bradley of picking O/U lines so far this year. Actually, Gus Bradley (14-40 as a head coach) wishes he could be as good of a head coach as I am at picking O/U lines. Anyway, here are my week 9 picks for just a meh college football slate this week.
#25 Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Pittsburgh: Virginia Tech has had a weird season. They’ve blown out all their opponents in their wins by at least 3 touchdowns and lost by at least 2 touchdowns in their two losses. I like their strong rushing defense to slow down Pitt’s rushing attack and win by a touchdown.
#22 Navy (+6.5) at USF: The computer polls don’t like Navy as this is their 2nd straight week being an underdog as a top 25 team. USF has one of the worst run defenses in all of college football, which does not bode well against a team like Navy. I like the Midshipmen to cover and possibly win here.
#10 West Virginia at Oklahoma State (+3.5): West Virginia is one of the last few unbeaten teams, but I think it ends this week. I like Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State to be able to keep up in the passing game and win a high scoring game at the end.
#2 Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State: Want to know how far Michigan State has fallen? According to Sagarin, they are rated below teams like UCF, Troy, and Middle Tennessee. Not even home-field advantage getting this many points against an in-state rival will help them.
#24 Penn State (-13) at Purdue: This one comes down to which team do I like less. Penn State pulled off the miraculous upset last week, but I’m not sure I’m buying them. But Purdue on the other hand is so bad. Also, I feel like the public will all be on Purdue expecting a bit of a letdown from Penn State after last week. So, I’m going to stick with Penn State with not much confidence at all.
#5 Louisville (-33) at Virginia: I’m not betting against Lamar Jackson anymore this year. Virginia has one of the worst defenses in all of college football. This should be easy.
#4 Washington at #17 Utah (+10): I love Washington and QB Jake Browning, but I think is too many points to give up against a quality opponent on the road. And Washington has to play a close game eventually.
#8 Baylor (-3.5) at Texas: This is not going to end well for Charlie Strong and Texas. Their defense can’t stop anyone except Iowa State. Baylor is going to roll in this one.
Northwestern (+26.5) at #6 Ohio State: I’m still a believer in Ohio State after last week and still think they have a very good chance of winning out and making the playoff. Northwestern matches up well though with their strong run defense. This is way too many points to lay in what I think will be a fairly low scoring game.
#14 Florida (-7.5) vs. Georgia: I’m taking Florida in this one, but I’m kind of nervous about it. Computer ratings have the Gators winning this game anywhere between 14-21 points. And also, this rivalry always seems to be close or have the underdog winning outright. Florida will be well rested and healthy after having bye weeks 2 of the last 3 weeks, and I have them winning 23-14.
#7 Nebraska (+9) at #11 Wisconsin: Another low scoring game here where I think too many points are being given up. This will be another snooze fest, but I really like Nebraska to cover in this one.
#13 Boise State at Wyoming (+13.5): I’m all over a lot of underdogs this week and this is another one. It’s actually not a great matchup for Wyoming, but again this is too many points for me to feel comfortable taking Boise State on the road.
Kansas (+40.5) at #16 Oklahoma: This one all comes down to when does Bob Stoops pull the starters and will Kansas backdoor cover? Oklahoma’s pass defense is so bad, that I think Kansas might actually be able to score a touchdown or two on them before they get pulled. I’ll take the Jayhawks to cover fairly easily.
#15 Auburn at Ole Miss (+4.5): I’m going to regret this, but I’m picking Hugh Freeze. Ole Miss is still a very high rated team according to the computers because of how many close losses they have. Everyone will be on Auburn after their blowout win over Arkansas last week. Maybe Ole Miss will actually win a close game for once or maybe Freeze will make another awful decision and lose another close one by 1-4 points.
#18 Tennessee at South Carolina (+13.5): This is a tough one for me as Tennessee is really banged up after that brutal 4 game stretch, but they did have an extra week to rest up. South Carolina has an awful run defense as well, but I’ll play it safe and take another home dog.
New Mexico State (+43.5) at #9 Texas A&M: It’s hard to get a more lopsided matchup between two FBS opponents. A&M will pull the starters early in this one and New Mexico State has a decent passing attack. I like them to backdoor cover.
#3 Clemson at #12 Florida State (+4.5): This is the best game of the week and I love FSU in this one. Clemson has been so lucky in close games this year and I think they will finally lose a close one here. FSU’s defense has been playing better the past couple weeks. Noles at home and at night getting 4.5 points is my lock of the week.
Over Pick of the Week – Texas Tech at TCU (86.5): Another high Texas Tech total, but I can’t fade this one. This one has two passing defenses in the bottom 1/4th of the country and two passing offenses in the top 15 in the country.
Under Pick of the Week – Duke at Georgia Tech (50.5): This one features two defenses in the top 1/3rd of the country and two offenses in the bottom 1/3rd of the country in overall YPG. I’ll be damned if I don’t go 2-0 this week.
Tony and Bela 